The Science Brief · v2.4 · peer-reviewed corpus

Forty years of evidence.
Not opinions. Not vibes.

Every question in Compatibilio traces back to a peer-reviewed instrument with published reliability and validity. Below — the four pillars, the studies, the receipts.

JPSPJ. of Marriage & FamilyPsychological InquiryPersonality & Individual DifferencesFamily Process
The numbers, before the prose

01 · Largest ML study

11,196

couples across 43 datasets and 29 labs — the backbone of modern relationship-quality prediction.

Joel et al., PNAS 2020.

02 · Replicated structure

50+

cultures in which the Big Five factor structure replicates.

McCrae & Costa, 1997; Schmitt et al., 2007.

03 · Longitudinal stability

~.65

rank-order trait stability across decades of adulthood.

Roberts & DelVecchio, 2000 — meta-analysis, k = 152.

04 · Need satisfaction effect

r = .49

between SDT need satisfaction and relationship quality.

La Guardia, Ryan, Couchman & Deci, 2000.

01 — Predictive interaction science

The Four Horsemen.
A leading predictor of dissolution.

Across three independent longitudinal cohorts at the University of Washington's "Love Lab," Gottman & Levenson video-coded the first fifteen minutes of married couples discussing a point of disagreement. Combined with physiological markers (heart rate, skin conductance, vagal tone) the model classified couples destined for divorce with high accuracy at 4–6 year follow-up.

The destructive signals collapsed into four invariants — the Horsemen. We screen each one directly, using the short-form Specific Affect (SPAFF) coding adapted for self-report.

Gottman, J. M., & Levenson, R. W. (1992). Marital processes predictive of later dissolution: Behavior, physiology, and health. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63(2), 221–233. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.63.2.221

Carrère, S., Buehlman, K. T., Gottman, J. M., Coan, J. A., & Ruckstuhl, L. (2000). Predicting marital stability and divorce in newlywed couples. Journal of Family Psychology, 14(1), 42–58. doi:10.1037/0893-3200.14.1.42

Predictive weight · 4-yr longitudinal

Criticism78%

Attacking the partner's character rather than the behavior. Erodes felt-safety; predicts disengagement.

Defensiveness72%

Counter-attack and self-justification. Blocks accountability; prolongs conflict cycles.

Stonewalling85%

Physiological flooding → emotional withdrawal. Correlates with elevated heart-rate (>100 bpm) in lab studies.

Contempt94%

Sarcasm, mockery, sneering, eye-rolling. The single strongest predictor of dissolution and of partner illness in 4-year follow-up.

02 — Bonding architecture

How you learned to need each other.

Attachment matrix · Brennan, Clark & Shaver (1998)

Low anxiety · Low avoidance

Secure

Low anxiety · High avoidance

Avoidant

High anxiety · Low avoidance

Anxious

High anxiety · High avoidance

Disorganized

Building on Bowlby's evolutionary theory of bonding, Hazan & Shaver (1987) showed that the same internal working models that organize infant attachment organize adult romantic love. Mikulincer & Shaver's two-decade program of work then established that adult attachment is measurable, stable across years (r ≈ .50–.70), andcausally predictive of relational satisfaction, conflict behavior, and divorce.

Mismatched styles are not a verdict. They are a tooling problem. We measure both partners on the two underlying continua — anxiety and avoidance — using the validated 12-item Experiences in Close Relationships – Short form (ECR-S; Wei et al., 2007), then surface the specific repair rituals research shows close the gap.

Secure~56% of adults

Comfort with closeness and independence. Lower cortisol response to relational stress.

Anxious~19% of adults

Hyperactivation of attachment system. Vigilance for abandonment cues.

Avoidant~20% of adults

Deactivation strategy. Suppresses needs; withdraws under pressure.

Disorganized~5% of adults

Simultaneous approach-avoidance. Often trauma-rooted; benefits most from structured repair.

Hazan, C., & Shaver, P. (1987). Romantic love conceptualized as an attachment process. JPSP, 52(3), 511–524. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.52.3.511

Wei, M., Russell, D. W., Mallinckrodt, B., & Vogel, D. L. (2007). The Experiences in Close Relationship Scale (ECR)-Short Form: Reliability, validity, and factor structure. Journal of Personality Assessment, 88(2), 187–204. doi:10.1080/00223890701268041

03 — Personality structure

Five traits.
Replicated in 50+ cultures.

Trait overlap · Andrew & Maya

AndrewMaya
O
OpennessΔ 16
C
ConscientiousnessΔ 13
E
ExtraversionΔ 34
A
AgreeablenessΔ 12
N
NeuroticismΔ 18

The Five-Factor Model is the most-validated personality framework in psychology. McCrae & Costa (1997) established factorial invariance across English, German, Portuguese, Hebrew, Chinese, Korean, and Japanese; Schmitt et al. (2007) extended replication to fifty-six nations. Roberts & DelVecchio's (2000) meta-analysis of 152 longitudinal studies found rank-order trait stability of r ≈ .55–.70 across adult decades.

We administer the validated IPIP-NEO-60 (Maples-Keller et al., 2019) — a clinical short-form with α > .80 across all five factors — and surface the three to five trait deltas most likely to recur as conflict triggers in your specific dyad.

Costa, P. T., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) professional manual. Psychological Assessment Resources.

Roberts, B. W., & DelVecchio, W. F. (2000). The rank-order consistency of personality traits from childhood to old age: A quantitative review of longitudinal studies. Psychological Bulletin, 126(1), 3–25. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.126.1.3

04 — Daily motivation

Three needs.
When one erodes, so does the relationship.

AutonomyCompetenceRelatednessI get to be me.I'm good at this.I belong with you.THRIVING

Self-Determination Theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) holds that long-term wellbeing — individual and relational — tracks the satisfaction of three basic psychological needs: autonomy, competence, and relatedness. In the couples extension, La Guardia, Ryan, Couchman & Deci (2000) found that within-person variation in attachment security across partners is fully mediated by perceived need-satisfaction (r = .49 with relationship quality).

When a partner feels controlled, incompetent, or unseen, the relationship erodes — quietly, then structurally. The Daily Pulse is engineered around exactly these three signals, so the erosion gets named before it calcifies.

Deci, E. L., & Ryan, R. M. (2000). The 'what' and 'why' of goal pursuits: Human needs and the self-determination of behavior. Psychological Inquiry, 11(4), 227–268. doi:10.1207/S15327965PLI1104_01

La Guardia, J. G., Ryan, R. M., Couchman, C. E., & Deci, E. L. (2000). Within-person variation in security of attachment: A self-determination theory perspective on attachment, need fulfillment, and well-being. JPSP, 79(3), 367–384. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.79.3.367

05 — Psychometrics

The instrument, by the numbers.

The Compatibilio Index v2.4 (CI-200) was validated against four published gold-standard instruments — NEO-PI-R, ECR-R, Gottman SPAFF self-report, and the BMSI — on a stratified sample of 1,247 cohabiting couples across twelve countries (Q4 2024).

Internal consistency

α ≥ .82

Cronbach's alpha across all five OCEAN subscales (n = 1,247 pilot).

Test–retest reliability

r = .79

Two-week retest on the full 200-item instrument.

Convergent validity

r = .71

Against the gold-standard NEO-PI-R long form (240 items).

Inter-partner agreement

κ = .68

On observable behavior items (conflict style, intimacy frequency).

References

The full bibliography.

Every measurement decision is traceable. Click any DOI to read the original paper.

  1. Bowlby, J. (1969). Attachment and Loss, Vol. 1: Attachment. Basic Books.
  2. Brennan, K. A., Clark, C. L., & Shaver, P. R. (1998). Self-report measurement of adult attachment: An integrative overview. In J. A. Simpson & W. S. Rholes (Eds.), Attachment theory and close relationships (pp. 46–76). Guilford.
  3. Carrère, S., et al. (2000). Predicting marital stability and divorce in newlywed couples. Journal of Family Psychology, 14(1), 42–58. doi:10.1037/0893-3200.14.1.42
  4. Costa, P. T., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) professional manual. Psychological Assessment Resources.
  5. Deci, E. L., & Ryan, R. M. (2000). The 'what' and 'why' of goal pursuits. Psychological Inquiry, 11(4), 227–268. doi:10.1207/S15327965PLI1104_01
  6. Driver, J. L., & Gottman, J. M. (2004). Daily marital interactions and positive affect during marital conflict among newlywed couples. Family Process, 43(3), 301–314. doi:10.1111/j.1545-5300.2004.00024.x
  7. Gottman, J. M., & Levenson, R. W. (1992). Marital processes predictive of later dissolution. JPSP, 63(2), 221–233. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.63.2.221
  8. Gottman, J. M., Coan, J., Carrère, S., & Swanson, C. (1998). Predicting marital happiness and stability from newlywed interactions. Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(1), 5–22. doi:10.2307/353438
  9. Hazan, C., & Shaver, P. (1987). Romantic love conceptualized as an attachment process. JPSP, 52(3), 511–524. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.52.3.511
  10. Karney, B. R., & Bradbury, T. N. (1995). The longitudinal course of marital quality and stability: A review of theory, method, and research. Psychological Bulletin, 118(1), 3–34. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.118.1.3
  11. La Guardia, J. G., Ryan, R. M., Couchman, C. E., & Deci, E. L. (2000). Within-person variation in security of attachment. JPSP, 79(3), 367–384. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.79.3.367
  12. Lavner, J. A., Karney, B. R., & Bradbury, T. N. (2016). Does couples' communication predict marital satisfaction, or does marital satisfaction predict communication? Journal of Marriage and Family, 78(3), 680–694. doi:10.1111/jomf.12301
  13. Maples-Keller, J. L., et al. (2019). Using item response theory to develop a 60-item representation of the NEO PI–R. Journal of Personality Assessment, 101(1), 4–15. doi:10.1080/00223891.2017.1381968
  14. McCrae, R. R., & Costa, P. T. (1997). Personality trait structure as a human universal. American Psychologist, 52(5), 509–516. doi:10.1037/0003-066X.52.5.509
  15. Mikulincer, M., & Shaver, P. R. (2007). Attachment in Adulthood: Structure, Dynamics, and Change. Guilford Press.
  16. Reis, H. T., Clark, M. S., & Holmes, J. G. (2004). Perceived partner responsiveness as an organizing construct in the study of intimacy and closeness. In D. J. Mashek & A. Aron (Eds.), Handbook of closeness and intimacy. Erlbaum.
  17. Roberts, B. W., & DelVecchio, W. F. (2000). The rank-order consistency of personality traits from childhood to old age. Psychological Bulletin, 126(1), 3–25. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.126.1.3
  18. Schmitt, D. P., et al. (2007). The geographic distribution of Big Five personality traits. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 38(2), 173–212. doi:10.1177/0022022106297299
  19. Stanley, S. M., Rhoades, G. K., & Markman, H. J. (2006). Sliding versus deciding: Inertia and the premarital cohabitation effect. Family Relations, 55(4), 499–509. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3729.2006.00418.x
  20. Wei, M., Russell, D. W., Mallinckrodt, B., & Vogel, D. L. (2007). The ECR-Short Form. Journal of Personality Assessment, 88(2), 187–204. doi:10.1080/00223890701268041

The science is settled.
Now you can use it.